In this very wintry week underway, a second round of lake effect snow is already taking shape in computer guidance. It does not appear to be taking on the full characteristics of what we just endured this weekend, but it is likely to be significant. With that in mind, the Buffalo National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming Counties from Tuesday morning into Thursday evening.Â
In fact, this next event doesn’t start out as localized lake effect. There will be some widespread/synoptic snow tied to a trough (dashed line) extending out from a coastal low pressure system.
In a high resolution model, this is a 10 a.m. depiction.
As the day progresses, the influence of the synoptic snow will wane in the afternoon, but a southwest to west flow off the 39-degree lake will develop a band of new lake effect snow. The wind orientation turns westerly later in the day, favoring locations well south of Buffalo.
Overall accumulations Tuesday will not add much to existing snow cover, but it will be enough to keep roads slick.Â
During Tuesday night and into Wednesday, a strengthening southwest flow will intensify the lake effect snow band in or near the metro area. While modeled guidance currently favors a wind from 230 degrees on the compass, which would push the heaviest snow north of the city, even the high resolution models did not always perform with precision during this past episode, so I wouldn’t want to take the city off the hook. This is a Wednesday 7 a.m. depiction.
Winds on Wednesday will increase to 15-30 mph, producing blowing and drifting snow in…
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