If the warmest Christmas Day in more than 40 years in Western New York wasn’t enough to convince you that we are living through some historic winter weirdness, try this:
The temperature has not dipped below 20 degrees here for almost a year. And if the extended forecast is right, it’s not going to be that cold at least through almost mid-January.
According to the National Weather Service, the low temperature at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport on Feb. 25 was 16 degrees. In the more than 300 days that have passed since, the temperature has not fallen into the teens, marking the longest stretch on record in Buffalo without such low temperatures.
February 25th 2023 the low temperature at the #Buffalo airport was 16°. This was the last time we had a temperature in the teens. Today marks day 304, and is the longest stretch on record for Buffalo without a temperature value in the teens. #climate
— NWS Buffalo (@NWSBUFFALO) December 26, 2023
“We are in an El Niño year so it is likely that you would have a warmer winter,” National Weather Service meteorologist Liz Jurkowski said.
In an El Niño climate pattern, according to the weather service, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern United States and Canada are drier and warmer than usual.
That represents a massive change from last year in the Buffalo area. By Christmas 2022, nearly 100 inches of snow had already fallen here. This, year the number is less than 8 inches.
Discussing the effects of an El Niño winter, Brian Brettschneider, the NWS Climate Service Program manager for the Alaska region, told Michelle L’Heureux of Climate.gov that there will be reduced snowfall in the north, especially around the Great Lakes, interior New England, the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, extending…
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